ADEQUACY 2050

HOW CAN WE RELIABLY COMBINE SECURITY OF SUPPLY WITH CLIMATE NEUTRALITY?

TransnetBW presents the new long-term study Adequacy 2050.

Media Library

Presentation of the new long-term study Adequacy 2050

Statements of the Advisory Board

„I very much appreciate the efforts made to take weather variability and climate model scenarios into account in adequacy studies. I enjoyed the open and multi-disciplinary discussion in the Advisory Board, which I hope was of great assistance to the project team."

Dr Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt
- Team Leader Energy Meteorology, Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center -

„Complementing regulatory processes such as the Network Development Plan and Adequacy Monitoring, the AQ 2050 study is an important scientific analysis of the coming two to three decades. It delves deeper into specific aspects and considers a broader spectrum of potential developments for the overall system."

Dr Markus Doll
- Head of Systems and Grid Operation, Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) -

„I particularly appreciate the fact that special importance is attached to weather conditions in this study, and that the question of how adequacy is ensured under very different climatic conditions has been examined in such depth."

Dr Hans Wolf von Koeller
- Head of Energy Policy, STEAG GmbH -

„A highlight of the study is that it does not only focus on resource adequacy, which means “do we have enough capacity to cover the demand?”, but also on transmission adequacy, complementing it to a whole system adequacy study."

Professor Dogan Keles
- Head of Section Energy Economics and Modelling, Technical University of Denmark (DTU) -

„The study fills a crucial knowledge gap in accessing long-term security of supply within a carbon-neutral energy system in Europe. The work and discussions within the Advisory Board were characterised by a highly diverse and interdisciplinary approach. This diversity enriched the dialogue, ensuring a balanced perspective that considered technical feasibility, regulatory frameworks and market realities."

Dr Philipp Alexander Ostrowicz
- Senior Research Advisor and Coordinator, Copenhagen School of Energy Infrastructure (CSEI) -

„The study employs a very interesting methodological approach by coupling three models: an energy system model, a market model and a grid model, thereby enabling the consideration of very different aspects. It was a great pleasure for me to contribute to the study as a member of the Advisory Board. In particular, the diverse experiences and extensive expertise of both the study team and the Advisory Board members led to very interesting discussions during the meetings of the Board which, in my view, created added value, both for the study itself and for us as advisors."

Professor Wolf Fichtner
- Professor of Energy Economics and Director of the Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) -

About the study

  • Topic: Long-term system adequacy in a climate-neutral energy system in Germany and Europe until 2045 / 2050, considering both resource and transmission adequacy in an integrated framework.
     
  • Objective: To analyse a robust climate-neutral and system-secure European energy system as well as to test the robustness of the German Network Development Plan (NEP 2023) under consideration of the impact of climate change, while questioning key assumptions about flexibility (e.g. the share of market-oriented prosumers in the residential and services sector).
     
  • Approach: hourly-based analyses based on a model chain (Energy System Model → Market Model → Grid Model) indicate cost-optimal system designs in 2050 under various “Scenario Clusters”, including in particular:
    • Extreme meteorological years (low annual renewable generation, heat waves, cold spells)
    • Flexibility technologies and operation (decentral / central, national / international)

Definition Box

  • From a market perspective, Resource Adequacy is ensured when the available supply in the electricity market is sufficient to meet demand at all times in an economically efficient manner. This requires that – under predictable and manageable risks such as changes in electricity demand or carbon (CO₂) prices – the market provide adequate generation capacity within the given political and economic framework. The main metrics in this context are Energy Not Served (ENS, expressed in TWh/y) and Loss of Load (LoL, expressed in hours – i.e. hours during which full supply is not reached).
     
  • Transmission Adequacy is ensured when the electricity supply can also be physically transmitted via the grid – meaning that generation can be delivered to consumers, either without congestion or with congestion management measures in place.
     
  • System Adequacy: The combination of Resource and Transmission Adequacy

Key Findings

The current network development plan may underestimate infrastructure and flexibility needs due to simplified weather assumptions and idealised prosumer behaviour.

Planning of climate-neutral systems must include weather variability, not just averages.

Planning with average weather is no longer enough. Our study shows that wind and solar output can vary by up to 15 % year on year — a critical factor for the adequacy and design of a climate-neutral energy system that relies heavily on renewables.

European interconnectivity lays the groundwork for a more efficient energy system.

Stronger interconnections across borders reduce costs and risks for the whole of Europe. Our findings show potential annual savings of up to 18 billion € for Europe in 2050, with a simultaneous boost in resilience.

Flexibility technologies are key — and they must be both central and decentral.

The secure operation of a climate-neutral energy system in Europe and in Germany requires a mix of flexibility technologies: prosumers who respond to market signals, as well as large-scale solutions like hydrogen power plants, batteries and interconnectors. Adequacy needs robustness and resilience, not over-reliance on any single approach.

Energy System Model Results

To access the Energy System Model Results, please click on the following link.

You will then leave the TransnetBW website and be redirected to the Microsoft website app.powerbi.com. 

Contact

Do you have any questions about the study or would you like to talk to us about it?
Then write an e-mail to Dr. Massimo Moser or Dr. Georgios Savvidis, Project Manager Adequacy 2050.

Dr. Massimo MoserTeam Lead Energy Systemm.moser2@transnetbw.de
Dr. Georgios SavvidisEngineer Energy Market Analysesg.savvidis@transnetbw.de